How to Forecast and Budget Overtime Accurately in Government (Stop the Surprises)

Surprise overtime blowouts destroy budgets and credibility.

Accurate forecasting requires four simple steps:

1. Analyse 12–24 months of historical overtime data by department and shift
2. Map demand patterns against known events (holidays, major projects, seasonal peaks)
3. Build in buffers for genuine emergencies — but not for poor rostering
4. Review and adjust the forecast monthly instead of once a year

Agencies that forecast properly typically come within 5–10% of their overtime budget instead of 30–50% over.

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