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Playbook · 3 min read
How to forecast and budget overtime accurately in government (stop the surprises)
Surprise overtime blowouts destroy budgets and credibility. Four simple steps to get within 5–10% of forecast instead of 30–50% over.
Surprise overtime blowouts destroy budgets and credibility.
Accurate forecasting requires four simple steps:
- Analyse 12–24 months of historical overtime data by department and shift
- Map demand patterns against known events (holidays, major projects, seasonal peaks)
- Build in buffers for genuine emergencies — but not for poor rostering
- Review and adjust the forecast monthly instead of once a year
Agencies that forecast properly typically come within 5–10% of their overtime budget instead of 30–50% over.
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