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Playbook · 3 min read

How to forecast and budget overtime accurately in government (stop the surprises)

Surprise overtime blowouts destroy budgets and credibility. Four simple steps to get within 5–10% of forecast instead of 30–50% over.


Surprise overtime blowouts destroy budgets and credibility.

Accurate forecasting requires four simple steps:

  • Analyse 12–24 months of historical overtime data by department and shift
  • Map demand patterns against known events (holidays, major projects, seasonal peaks)
  • Build in buffers for genuine emergencies — but not for poor rostering
  • Review and adjust the forecast monthly instead of once a year

Agencies that forecast properly typically come within 5–10% of their overtime budget instead of 30–50% over.

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